So, will any Republican challenge President Trump in the 2020 presidential primary? Do they dare, lest they get dismissed from relevance like a flunky on The Apprentice with a scowling "You're fired!" from the Bully in Chief? Can any moderate Republican capture the vote of the right wing base to win the primary and still appeal to the independent and moderate voters who are sure to decide the 2020 general election?

Right now, the Republican base is dominated by Evangelicals, the Tea Party, the anti-government crowd, and the new breed of Trump loyalists. Fifty percent of Republican primary voters identify as white Evangelicals and fifty three percent of all Republicans are sympathetic to the Tea Party. The anti-government Second-Amendment-solutions crowd feels more at home than ever, and the new breed of Trump loyalists will not go away. Not a good sign for moderates.

The two former primary candidates who lasted the longest were Governor John Kasich and Senator Ted Cruz. In my estimation they are non-starters for 2020. Ted Cruz is certainly no moderate and would have the most appeal to the base, but I think even the base is growing weary of his condescending, oh-too-serious, pseudo-intellectual style. As a general election candidate, he would suck. Not many independents will warm to his particular politics or his, uh, personality.

Governor Kasich gained a following of younger, moderate Republicans but failed to capture much of the far right base. Now known as an upbeat moderate, he has changed his image since his time at Fox News and his pugnacious governor days. Though at first he said he wouldn't run again, he is now open to 2020 and already garnering support. Still, I do not see the current Republican base abandoning Trump and flocking to him.

Senator Marco Rubio, is definitely not a moderate, but has become a favorite of the Party establishment in 2016 (which to me shows just how far right the party has moved in order to please its base). But will the base still trust him? They certainly did not take to him in 2016.

Governor Jeb Bush would have to completely reinvent himself to be accepted by the base and practically anyone else. I don't think there is a formula for that.

Plus there is a yada, yada list of others who might have potential, such as Cory Gardner and Ben Sasse. Under normal circumstances such candidates might challenge an incumbent for the exposure for a future run, but who wants to be thrown into the gladiatorial arena with an opponent like President Trump? If he feels threatened the the President is likely to so savagely maul his opponent that they would be politically incapacitated in the future. As of now, 2020 is a great year for hopeful Republicans to sit on the sidelines.

Which brings me to the most electable Republican candidate I see on the horizon, Ambassador Nikki Haley. As the former Governor of South Carolina she has deep conservative roots, opposing and opting out of Obamacare and standing staunchly on lower taxes, anti-regulation, and pro-business policies. However, I think she is too politically savvy to challenge an incumbent President Trump in 2020. In 2024, as a minority woman (her parents are from India) she would be an ideal Republican candidate, and could even be the first woman president, which would be a political coup d'état for Republicans. Democrats would never live it down.

So, unless President Trump alienates a large portion of the Republican base or decides not to run, at this point no Republican on the horizon would have much of a chance in the 2020 primary election. The true rising stars should sit this one out.

However, if the backlash against President Trump swings the pendulum far enough, the Democrats have a real chance to take back the White House 2020. In that scenario becomes evident, the Republican leadership has three options:

1. Back Trump and lose, setting their sites on 2024
2. Challenge Trump and divide the party and possibly lose
3. Find a candidate so bright and popular that the Republican base will support him or her in the primaries and independent voters will flock to the candidate in the general election.

Yeah, right. If Trump is not viable, there are only two options.

Coming soon: WTF will the Democrats do in 2020?